Si ka ndryshuar lufta e Rusis\u00eb kund\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebs? A mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb ajo k\u00ebt\u00eb vjesht\u00eb? DW foli me zyrtar\u00eb ushtarak\u00eb dhe ekspert\u00eb rreth mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimi t\u00eb ri.<\/p>\n
Lufta q\u00eb SHBA-t\u00eb dhe Izraeli po zhvillojn\u00eb kund\u00ebr Iranit vazhdon t\u00eb largoj\u00eb v\u00ebmendjen nga lufta e Rusis\u00eb kund\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebs. Kievi ka frik\u00eb se do t\u00eb marr\u00eb m\u00eb pak arm\u00eb amerikane dhe po p\u00ebrgatitet p\u00ebr vitet e tjera. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Moska po p\u00ebrfiton nga rritja e \u00e7mimeve globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00ebra an\u00eb e realitetit n\u00eb pranver\u00ebn e vitit 2026.<\/p>\n
Tjetra \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bllokim virtual n\u00eb front. Edhe pse asnj\u00ebra pal\u00eb aktualisht nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb p\u00ebrfitime t\u00eb konsiderueshme territoriale, Ukrainapo sulmon gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs thell\u00eb brenda Rusis\u00eb \u2013 p\u00ebr shembull n\u00eb Tuapse n\u00eb Detin e Zi. Kremlini \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb i detyruar t\u00eb mbyll\u00eb p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht internetin n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Rusin\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa popullariteti i Presidentit Vladimir Putin vazhdon t\u00eb bjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb e gjith\u00eb kjo? Ku po shkon lufta n\u00eb vitin e pest\u00eb q\u00eb nga fillimi i sulmit t\u00eb madh? Ekspert\u00eb per\u00ebndimor\u00eb dhe zyrtar\u00ebt ushtarak\u00eb besojn\u00eb se fundi i luft\u00ebs po afrohet de facto. Ata ia atribuojn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti n\u00eb SHBA, nd\u00ebr t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n
A do t\u00eb urdh\u00ebroj\u00eb Putini nj\u00eb mobilizim t\u00eb ri?<\/p>\n
Duke pasur parasysh situat\u00ebn n\u00eb vijat e frontit n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, ekspert\u00ebt nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb kan\u00eb spekuluar p\u00ebr jav\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebra se Putinimund t\u00eb t\u00eb shpall\u00eb nj\u00eb mobilizim t\u00eb ri \u2013 si\u00e7 b\u00ebri n\u00eb vjesht\u00ebn e vitit 2022. As zyrtar\u00ebt ushtarak\u00eb ukrainas \u2013 t\u00eb em\u00ebruar s\u00eb fundmi nga Presidenti Volodymyr Zelensky \u2013 nuk e p\u00ebrjashtojn\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, Evelyn Farkas e Institutit McCain n\u00eb Universitetin Shtet\u00ebror t\u00eb Arizon\u00ebs nuk beson se Rusia do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb nj\u00eb mobilizim t\u00eb plot\u00eb. Farkas, e cila mbajti nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb Pentagon n\u00ebn Barack Obam\u00ebn, tregon problemet brenda ekonomis\u00eb ruse q\u00eb, sipas mendimit t\u00eb saj, do ta dekurajojn\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsin e Kremlinit nga nj\u00eb hap i till\u00eb.<\/p>\n
A do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet Ukraina m\u00eb e pavarur nga arm\u00ebt per\u00ebndimore? Pavar\u00ebsisht situat\u00ebs n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, Kurt Volker \u2013 ish-p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesi special i Departamentit t\u00eb Shtetit t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn n\u00ebn administrat\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb Donald Trump \u2013 beson se Ukraina \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb sot sesa ishte m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Sipas mendimit t\u00eb tij, Kievi tani \u00ebsht\u00eb duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb pak i varur nga arm\u00ebt per\u00ebndimore, duke p\u00ebrmbushur \u201c60 deri n\u00eb 70 p\u00ebrqind\u201d t\u00eb nevojave t\u00eb saj brenda vendit. Sipas tij, Ukraina mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb luftoj\u00eb edhe n\u00ebse Shtetet e Bashkuara nd\u00ebrpresin furnizimet me arm\u00eb p\u00ebrmes kanaleve evropiane. Vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb, gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb vizite n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, Volodymyr Zelensky kishte frik\u00eb se Ukraina mund ta humbiste luft\u00ebn n\u00ebse mb\u00ebshtetja amerikane do t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpritej.<\/p>\n
Volker nuk mendon se Ukraina mund t\u00eb humbas\u00eb luft\u00ebn n\u00ebse nd\u00ebrpritet furnizimi nga Amerika, por ai v\u00ebren se as Uashingtoni nuk mund t\u2019i garantoj\u00eb Kievit furnizimet e vazhdueshme me raketa Patriot, n\u00eb sasi si deri tani.<\/p>\n
Farkas: Zelensky do t\u2019i rezistoj\u00eb presionit t\u00eb Trump
\nPresidenti ukrainas tha s\u00eb fundmi se pret t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me presion n\u00eb rritje nga administrata Trump deri n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb. Sipas tij, Trumpi d\u00ebshiron q\u00eb Ukraina t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb kushtet e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim \u2013 m\u00eb konkretisht, t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjen e trupave ukrainase nga pjesa e Donbasit e kontrolluar nga Kievi. Evelyn Farkas, megjithat\u00eb, beson se Ukraina do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u2019i rezistoj\u00eb k\u00ebtij presioni me sukses.<\/p>\n
Drejtori i Institutit McCain pret q\u00eb kriza e Iranit t\u00eb zgjidhet deri n\u00eb ver\u00eb \u2013 dhe Ngushtica e Hormuzit t\u00eb rihapet. M\u00eb pas SHBA-ja mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb \u201cndryshim regjimi\u201d n\u00eb Kub\u00eb, si\u00e7 njoftoi m\u00eb par\u00eb Trumpi. Por edhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb skenar, ajo nuk pret q\u00eb presioni mbi Kievin t\u00eb rritet. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj presioni mbi Kub\u00ebn mund ta dob\u00ebsoj\u00eb m\u00eb tej Rusin\u00eb \u2013 aleatin historik t\u00eb Havan\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Negociata serioze vet\u00ebm pas zgjedhjeve n\u00eb SHBA<\/p>\n
Si Farkas ashtu edhe Volker besojn\u00eb se zgjedhjet p\u00ebr Kongresin amerikan n\u00eb n\u00ebntor mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebnoj\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kthese. Pas tyre, pozicioni i Trump dhe Partis\u00eb s\u00eb tij Republikane mund t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohet.<\/p>\n
\u201cKjo do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb ushtruar presion mbi administrat\u00ebn amerikane q\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn dhe NATO-n\u201d, beson Farkas.<\/p>\n
Kryetari i Komitetit Ushtarak t\u00eb NATO-s, Admirali Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, vler\u00ebson se lufta \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201ce v\u00ebshtir\u00eb\u201d t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e betej\u00ebs dhe se ushtria ruse mbetet \u201ce fort\u00eb\u201d, pavar\u00ebsisht humbjeve n\u00eb rritje. Megjithat\u00eb situata ekonomike mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb nga faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb mund ta inkurajoj\u00eb Mosk\u00ebn t\u00eb bjer\u00eb dakord p\u00ebr nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje paqeje.<\/p>\n
\u201cNuk besoj se Rusia do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb dakord p\u00ebr nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje paqeje me Ukrain\u00ebn, por mendoj se n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment mund t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim. Besoj se po i afrohemi asaj pike\u201d, thot\u00eb Kurt Volker, ish-p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesi special i Trump p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn. Ai pohon se negociatat p\u00ebr t\u2019i dh\u00ebn\u00eb fund luft\u00ebs kan\u00eb qen\u00eb \u201cnj\u00eb fars\u00eb\u201d deri m\u00eb tani. Por situata n\u00eb ndryshim n\u00eb Rusi dhe humbjet q\u00eb po p\u00ebson n\u00eb luft\u00eb mund ta detyrojn\u00eb Kremlinin t\u00eb pezulloj\u00eb armiq\u00ebsit\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cRealiteti \u00ebsht\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm. Situata n\u00eb Rusi \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar ndjesh\u00ebm dhe vazhdon t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet\u201d, thot\u00eb Kurt Volker. Parashikimi i tij \u00ebsht\u00eb ky: koha \u00ebsht\u00eb kund\u00ebr Putinit. Ekspert\u00ebt jan\u00eb ende t\u00eb ndar\u00eb n\u00eb mendime se kur mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kthese. Volker nuk e p\u00ebrjashton mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb kjo t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb q\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit. Sipas tij, probabiliteti \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cmbi 50 p\u00ebrqind\u201d. Farkas mendon ndryshe: Ai beson se viti 2027 do t\u00eb jet\u00eb viti n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin \u201cukrainasit do t\u00eb dalin fitimtar\u00eb\u201d. \/DW<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Si ka ndryshuar lufta e Rusis\u00eb kund\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebs? A mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb ajo k\u00ebt\u00eb vjesht\u00eb?…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15337,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bote"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15334"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15338,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15334\/revisions\/15338"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}