Ai q\u00eb ishte parapar\u00eb t\u00eb ishte angazhimi i par\u00eb teknik ball\u00eb p\u00ebr ball\u00eb mes Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe Iranit pas memorandumit t\u00eb mir\u00ebkuptimit, \u00ebsht\u00eb shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb nj\u00eb test t\u00eb hersh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00ebse angazhimi i brisht\u00eb diplomatike mund t\u2019i mbijetoj\u00eb presioneve t\u00eb nj\u00eb lufte m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb rajonale.<\/p>\n
Bisedimet, t\u00eb cilat pritej t\u00eb zhvilloheshin n\u00eb resortin Burgenstok n\u00eb Zvic\u00ebr, me Katarin dhe Pakistanin q\u00eb do t\u00eb ndihmonin n\u00eb leht\u00ebsimin e procesit, u shtyn papritur m\u00eb 19 qershor, vet\u00ebm disa or\u00eb pasi zyrtar\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb kishin nisur t\u00eb sinjalizonin p\u00ebr gazetar\u00ebt se takimi pritej t\u00eb mbahej sipas planit.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb pas, planet ndryshuan.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebnpresidenti amerikan, JD Vance, q\u00eb pritej t\u00eb udh\u00ebhiqte delegacionin amerikan, shtyu udh\u00ebtimin e tij.<\/p>\n
Ministria e Jashtme e Zvicr\u00ebs konfirmoi se bisedimet ishin shtyr\u00eb, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn tani p\u00ebr tani.<\/p>\n
Irani tha se nuk kishte \u201curgjenc\u00eb\u201d p\u00ebr angazhim t\u00eb menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm, duke argumentuar se memorandumi fillestar ve\u00e7se \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebnshkruar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb digjitale dhe se faza e ardhshme do t\u00eb varej nga zbatimi i kushteve p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat pal\u00ebt jan\u00eb pajtuar.<\/p>\n
Mesazhi nga t\u00eb gjitha pal\u00ebt ishte: Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm shtyrje, jo kolapsim i p\u00ebrpjekjeve.<\/p>\n
\u201cFjala ky\u00e7 k\u00ebtu \u00ebsht\u00eb \u2018shtyrje\u2019 dhe jo \u2018anulim\u2019\u201d, tha p\u00ebr Radion Evropa e Lir\u00eb Dr. Gorana Grgic, drejtuese e Ekipit p\u00ebr Siguri Globale n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn p\u00ebr Studime t\u00eb Siguris\u00eb n\u00eb Cyrih.<\/p>\n
Zyrtar\u00ebt zviceran\u00eb duket se ndajn\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin q\u00ebndrim. Ministria e Jashtme e Zvicr\u00ebs b\u00ebri t\u00eb ditur se puna p\u00ebrgatitore n\u00eb Burgenstok po vazhdon, duke l\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohet se t\u00eb gjitha pal\u00ebt ende synojn\u00eb t\u2019i rikthehen tryez\u00ebs s\u00eb bisedimeve.<\/p>\n
Kjo ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi, sepse Zvicra ka luajtur prej koh\u00ebsh nj\u00eb rol unik n\u00eb diplomacin\u00eb mes SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit. Q\u00eb nga nd\u00ebrprerja e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve zyrtare pas Revolucionit iranian t\u00eb vitit 1979, ky shtet ka sh\u00ebrbyer si fuqi mbrojt\u00ebse e Uashingtonit n\u00eb Teheran dhe si nj\u00eb kanal ky\u00e7 komunikimi.<\/p>\n
Grgic tha se roli i Zvicr\u00ebs shpesh keqkuptohet.<\/p>\n
Kanalet jozyrtare diplomatike
\n\u201cZvicra po vepron si nj\u00eb qend\u00ebr p\u00ebr negociata\u201d, tha ajo, duke theksuar se shteti funksionon m\u00eb pak si nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebs i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb si leht\u00ebsues i procesit, duke qen\u00eb mikprit\u00ebs i bisedimeve, duke ruajtur kanalet e komunikimit dhe duke mund\u00ebsuar kontaktet p\u00ebrmes kanaleve jozyrtare.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto kanale n\u00eb prapasken\u00eb mbeten thelb\u00ebsore.<\/p>\n
\u201cKa shum\u00eb kanale jozyrtare q\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb si drejt Uashingtonit ashtu edhe drejt Teheranit\u201d, tha Grgic. \u201cDhe, ato kan\u00eb qen\u00eb aktive gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebtij procesi\u201d.<\/p>\n
Edhe kjo arkitektur\u00eb m\u00eb e gjer\u00eb diplomatike ka evoluar. Teksa Gjeneva tradicionalisht ka qen\u00eb qendra e diplomacis\u00eb shum\u00ebpal\u00ebshe, nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebs t\u00eb rinj kan\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb loj\u00eb. Katari \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb aktor gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm, nd\u00ebrsa Pakistani \u00ebsht\u00eb shfaqur si nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebs alternativ, nj\u00eb rol q\u00eb dikur lidhej m\u00eb shum\u00eb me Omanin.<\/p>\n
Ky num\u00ebr gjithnj\u00eb n\u00eb rritje i leht\u00ebsuesve t\u00eb procesit pasqyron si kompleksitetin, ashtu edhe urgjenc\u00ebn e momentit.<\/p>\n
Edhe sipas standardeve zvicerane, 19 qershori ishte nj\u00eb dit\u00eb kaotike. Ajo q\u00eb nisi n\u00ebn qiellin e kthjell\u00ebt n\u00eb Cyrih p\u00ebrfundoi me at\u00eb q\u00eb Grgic e p\u00ebrshkroi si nj\u00eb \u201cstuhi historike\u201d, aq e fuqishme sa p\u00ebrmbyti stacionin kryesor t\u00eb trenave t\u00eb qytetit.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr diplomat\u00ebt q\u00eb po ndiqnin zhvillimet q\u00eb po ndodhnin, kjo dukej si nj\u00eb metafor\u00eb e p\u00ebrshtatshme p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Vijat e kuqe<\/p>\n
Shtyrja e bisedimeve v\u00eb n\u00eb pah nj\u00eb realitet t\u00eb njohur t\u00eb diplomacis\u00eb SHBA-Iran: kornizat e marr\u00ebveshjeve shpesh jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lehta p\u00ebr t\u2019u ruajtur sesa marr\u00ebveshjet p\u00ebrfundimtare. N\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj pasigurie ndodhet Libani.<\/p>\n
Ministria e Jashtme e Iranit tha se negociatat p\u00ebr nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje p\u00ebrfundimtare varen nga zbatimi i \u201ckushteve t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuara\u201d n\u00eb memorandumin e mir\u00ebkuptimit \u2013 gjuh\u00eb q\u00eb diplomat\u00ebt e interpretojn\u00eb gjer\u00ebsisht si t\u00eb lidhur me stabilizimin e frontit libanez.<\/p>\n
Kjo nd\u00ebrlidhje e ka nd\u00ebrlikuar gjith\u00e7ka.<\/p>\n
Zyrtar\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb evropian\u00eb i than\u00eb Radios Evropa e Lir\u00eb se n\u00eb fakt, nuk ka nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim \u201ct\u00eb ri\u201d midis Izraelit dhe Hezbollahut. Ajo q\u00eb u njoftua publikisht ishte riaktivizimi i nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimi t\u00eb arritur m\u00eb par\u00eb, i cili kishte qen\u00eb pran\u00eb d\u00ebshtimit pas disa dit\u00ebsh dhune intensive.<\/p>\n
Hezbollahu, grup militant dhe parti politike q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet nga Irani dhe q\u00eb kontrollon pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb Libanit jugor, konsiderohet organizat\u00eb terroriste nga Shtetet e Bashkuara, nd\u00ebrsa Bashkimi Evropian ka futur n\u00eb list\u00ebn e zez\u00eb krahun e tij t\u00eb armatosur, por jo edhe partin\u00eb politike.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb burim izraelit i mir\u00ebinformuar tha se Hezbollahu kishte k\u00ebrkuar me urgjenc\u00eb rikthimin e kushteve t\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimit pasi sulmet izraelite vran\u00eb, sipas Izraelitm \u201cdhjet\u00ebra terrorist\u00eb\u201d, megjith\u00ebse n\u00eb mesin e viktimave n\u00eb Liban kishte edhe civil\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Uashingtoni po sinjalizon se Libani tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i pandash\u00ebm nga situata m\u00eb e gjer\u00eb rajonale.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrpara bisedimeve q\u00eb do t\u00eb zhvillohen jav\u00ebn e ardhshme n\u00eb Uashington, sekretari amerikan i Shtetit, Marco Rubio, i tha presidentit libanez, Joseph Aoun, se Hezbollahu duhet t\u00eb \u00e7armatoset dhe rikonfirmoi mb\u00ebshtetjen e SHBA-s\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb shtet sovran libanez q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cn\u00eb paqe me t\u00eb gjith\u00eb fqinj\u00ebt e tij\u201d.<\/p>\n
Kjo ishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa diplomaci standarde. Ishte nj\u00eb sinjal \u2013 si p\u00ebr Bejrutin ashtu edhe p\u00ebr Teheranin \u2013 se Uashingtoni e sheh t\u00eb ardhmen e Hezbollahut si pjes\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7do zgjidhjeje m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb rajonale.<\/p>\n
Ndikimi i Teheranit<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr Teheranin, mbijetesa e Hezbollahut n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e ndar\u00eb nga diplomacia b\u00ebrthamore.<\/p>\n
Farzan Sabet, ekspert p\u00ebr Iranin n\u00eb Institutin e Studimeve Pasuniversitare n\u00eb Gjenev\u00eb, i tha Radios Evropa e Lir\u00eb se shtyrja e bisedimeve nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb domosdo se memorandumi fillestar i mir\u00ebkuptimit \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb rrezik.<\/p>\n
\u201cElementi kryesor i memorandumit t\u00eb mir\u00ebkuptimit \u00ebsht\u00eb rihapja e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit\u201d, tha ai, duke argumentuar se zbatimi i k\u00ebsaj faze t\u00eb par\u00eb duket se po ec\u00ebn p\u00ebrpara.<\/p>\n
Rreziqet p\u00ebr kalimin e anijeve n\u00ebp\u00ebr ngushtic\u00eb jan\u00eb ulur dhe po ashtu jan\u00eb ulur edhe kostot p\u00ebr sigurimin e anijeve, duke mund\u00ebsuar normalizim t\u00eb trafikut komercial.<\/p>\n
Kjo p\u00ebr Iranin \u00ebsht\u00eb d\u00ebshmi se faza e par\u00eb po funksionon.<\/p>\n
Por, Sabet tha se Irani tani po p\u00ebrpiqet ta zgjeroj\u00eb korniz\u00ebn diplomatike duke e lidhur sigurin\u00eb e Hezbollahut me faz\u00ebn e ardhshme t\u00eb negociatave.<\/p>\n
Kjo i sh\u00ebrben disa q\u00ebllimeve: mbrojtjes s\u00eb nj\u00ebrit prej aleat\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm rajonal\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit, qet\u00ebsimit t\u00eb linj\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr politike brenda vendit q\u00eb mbetet skeptike ndaj marr\u00ebveshjes, si dhe testimit n\u00ebse administrata e presidentit amerikan, Donald Trump, mund ta frenoj\u00eb fushat\u00ebn ushtarake t\u00eb Izraelit.<\/p>\n
\u201cKjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj m\u00ebnyre p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cil\u00ebs Irani po demonstron forc\u00ebn\u201d, tha Sabet.<\/p>\n
Ky ndikim vazhdon t\u00eb ket\u00eb rr\u00ebnj\u00ebt te gjeografia. Irani ruan aft\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb penguar qarkullimin n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit, e cila mbetet pika e tij m\u00eb e fuqishme e presionit ekonomik. Sabet argumentoi se Teherani beson se n\u00ebse sulmohet, mund t\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjet jo vet\u00ebm duke mbyllur ngushtic\u00ebn, por edhe duke goditur infrastruktur\u00ebn energjetike n\u00eb mbar\u00eb rajonin e Gjirit.<\/p>\n
Kjo logjik\u00eb e parandalimit ndihmon q\u00eb t\u00eb shpjegohet arsyeja pse presidenti Trump n\u00eb fund zgjodhi diplomacin\u00eb n\u00eb vend t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit ushtarak.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, Sabet tha se \u00ebsht\u00eb i kujdessh\u00ebm p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb m\u00eb pas.<\/p>\n
\u201cNuk jam shum\u00eb optimist se do t\u00eb materializohet nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e faz\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e p\u00ebrqendruar te \u00e7\u00ebshtja b\u00ebrthamore\u201d, tha ai.<\/p>\n
Rrug\u00eb e gjat\u00eb deri n\u00eb faz\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb
\nP\u00ebr momentin, zyrtar\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb dhe evropian\u00eb thon\u00eb se ende shpresojn\u00eb q\u00eb bisedimet n\u00eb Burgenstok mund t\u00eb rifillojn\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb fundjav\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por, diplomat\u00ebt pranojn\u00eb se faza e dyt\u00eb \u2013 ku kufizimet b\u00ebrthamore, leht\u00ebsimi i sanksioneve, garancit\u00eb e siguris\u00eb rajonale dhe marr\u00ebveshjet p\u00ebr grupet aleate t\u00eb pal\u00ebve p\u00ebrplasen \u2013 do t\u00eb jet\u00eb duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi suprem iranian, Mojtaba Khamenei, tashm\u00eb , ka shprehur skepticiz\u00ebm ndaj k\u00ebsaj kornize. Politikan\u00ebt e linj\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr n\u00eb Teheran argumentojn\u00eb se memorandumi i mir\u00ebkuptimit ka shum\u00eb koncesione.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr zviceran\u00ebt, megjithat\u00eb, ky lloj i diplomacis\u00eb me nisje dhe ndalesa \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e njohur.<\/p>\n
Sabet tha se Zvicra ka kaluar dekada duke leht\u00ebsuar pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebto lloj negociatash \u2013 nga vitet e George W. Bushit, p\u00ebrmes Barack Obam\u00ebs, Joe Bidenit dhe Donald Trum-it.<\/p>\n
Vonesat, pengesat, prapakthimet: t\u00eb gjitha pjes\u00eb e t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtit model.<\/p>\n
Bisedimet e para SHBA-Iran pas luft\u00ebs ishin menduar t\u00eb krijonin vrull. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, ato kan\u00eb zbuluar sa e brisht\u00eb mbetet ai vrull dhe sa shpejt diplomacia mund t\u00eb lihet n\u00eb plan t\u00eb dyt\u00eb nga zhvillimet n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00eb.\/REL\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ai q\u00eb ishte parapar\u00eb t\u00eb ishte angazhimi i par\u00eb teknik ball\u00eb p\u00ebr ball\u00eb mes Shteteve…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27126,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lajme"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27120"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27120\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27127,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27120\/revisions\/27127"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}