\u00c7mimet e gazit n\u00eb Europ\u00eb jan\u00eb rritur me 130% gjat\u00eb vitit 2026, nd\u00ebrsa rezervat e ul\u00ebta dhe rreziqet n\u00eb furnizim e b\u00ebjn\u00eb kontinentin t\u00eb cenuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb dimri t\u00eb kushtuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Kontratat e s\u00eb ardhmes p\u00ebr gazin n\u00eb tregun holandez TTF, treguesi kryesor i \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb gazit n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, u rrit\u00ebn t\u00eb enjten mbi 65 euro p\u00ebr megavat-or\u00eb, niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb q\u00eb nga marsi. Kjo e \u00e7on rritjen e \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 130% q\u00eb nga fillimi i vitit.<\/p>\n
Rritja po ndodh n\u00eb mesin e nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr vale t\u00eb nxehti n\u00eb Europ\u00eb dhe temperaturat e larta jan\u00eb nj\u00eb nga arsyet pse dimri i ardhsh\u00ebm pritet t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kushtuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Temperaturat rekord po rrisin k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr energji elektrike, nd\u00ebrsa that\u00ebsira dhe nxeht\u00ebsia po kufizojn\u00eb prodhimin hidroenergjetik dhe at\u00eb b\u00ebrthamor. Si rezultat, centralet me gaz po p\u00ebrdoren m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbuluar munges\u00ebn, pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb kur Europa duhet t\u00eb rris\u00eb rezervat e gazit p\u00ebr dim\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
\u00c7mimet mbeten ende shum\u00eb posht\u00eb kulmit prej rreth 350 euro\/MWh t\u00eb arritur gjat\u00eb kriz\u00ebs energjetike t\u00eb vitit 2022, t\u00eb shkaktuar nga pushtimi rus i Ukrain\u00ebs. Megjithat\u00eb, Europa po i afrohet dimrit me rezerva t\u00eb ul\u00ebta dhe me pak hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr goditje n\u00eb furnizim.<\/p>\n
Pse po rriten s\u00ebrish \u00e7mimet e gazit n\u00eb Europ\u00eb<\/p>\n
Rritja e \u00e7mimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb pafavorsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Europa zakonisht shfryt\u00ebzon muajt e ver\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb rimbushur rezervat e gazit, p\u00ebrpara se familjet t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb t\u2019i p\u00ebrdorin ato p\u00ebr ngrohje gjat\u00eb dimrit.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebt\u00eb vit, rimbushja e rezervave \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrplasur me nj\u00eb seri problemesh.<\/p>\n
Ngushtica e Hormuzit mbetet praktikisht e mbyllur, Norvegjia ka zgjatur nd\u00ebrprerjet n\u00eb disa fusha t\u00eb prodhimit t\u00eb gazit, nd\u00ebrsa that\u00ebsira ka reduktuar prodhimin e energjis\u00eb hidroelektrike dhe b\u00ebrthamore.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, centralet me gaz po plot\u00ebsojn\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebtij hendeku, pasi k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr energji elektrike \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur gjat\u00eb val\u00ebs s\u00eb t\u00eb nxehtit. Kjo po rrit k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin burim energjie q\u00eb Europa duhet ta ruaj\u00eb p\u00ebr dim\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
Rezultati \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb treg me shum\u00eb pak hap\u00ebsir\u00eb sigurie.<\/p>\n
\u201cJan\u00eb materializuar disa rreziqe negative nga ana e ofert\u00ebs dhe nivelet e rezervave t\u00eb gazit jan\u00eb historikisht t\u00eb ul\u00ebta p\u00ebrpara sezonit t\u00eb ngrohjes\u201d, tha Daniel Kral, ekonomist n\u00eb Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n
Oxford Economics pret t\u00eb rishikoj\u00eb n\u00eb rritje parashikimin p\u00ebr \u00e7mimet e gazit n\u00eb Europ\u00eb n\u00eb shtator, potencialisht drejt nj\u00eb mesatareje af\u00ebr 60 euro\/MWh gjat\u00eb tremujorit t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt t\u00eb vitit 2026 dhe tremujorit t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2027.<\/p>\n
Europa \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e q\u00ebndrueshme, por jo e mbrojtur nga moti<\/p>\n
Europa e ka ulur konsumin e gazit me rreth 15\u201320% krahasuar me vitin 2021. Industria ka reduktuar p\u00ebrdorimin e gazit, energjia e rinovueshme \u00ebsht\u00eb zgjeruar dhe pompat e nxeht\u00ebsis\u00eb kan\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohjes me gaz.<\/p>\n
Edhe furnizimi global me gaz natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm, LNG, \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur. Europa ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb terminale importi dhe mund t\u00eb t\u00ebrheq\u00eb ngarkesa shtes\u00eb kur \u00e7mimet rriten. Kjo e b\u00ebn nj\u00eb munges\u00eb fizike t\u00eb gazit shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb mundshme sesa gjat\u00eb kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb viteve 2021\u20132022.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, konsumi m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt nuk e eliminon dob\u00ebsin\u00eb kryesore t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Sipas Oxford Economics, lidhja mes temperaturave dhe k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr gaz mbetet pothuajse e drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb. Dimrin e kaluar, kur temperaturat ran\u00eb p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht n\u00ebn mesataren afatgjat\u00eb, kursimet e gazit n\u00eb Europ\u00eb krahasuar me nivelet para vitit 2021 u ngushtuan n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 5\u201310%.<\/p>\n
Europa e ka ulur nevoj\u00ebn normale p\u00ebr gaz, por nuk e ka eliminuar var\u00ebsin\u00eb prej tij kur dimri \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht i ftoht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pik\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye rezervat jan\u00eb kaq t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme.<\/p>\n
Rezervat jan\u00eb amortizatori mes nj\u00eb dimri normal dhe nj\u00eb goditjeje n\u00eb furnizim. Kur nivelet jan\u00eb t\u00eb larta, tregtar\u00ebt mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballojn\u00eb nj\u00eb val\u00eb t\u00eb ftohti pa garuar agresivisht p\u00ebr ngarkesa t\u00eb reja. Kur rezervat jan\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, \u00e7do jav\u00eb m\u00eb e ftoht\u00eb se parashikimet kthehet n\u00eb nj\u00eb gar\u00eb p\u00ebr furnizim.<\/p>\n
Shifra q\u00eb kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi<\/p>\n
Rezervat europiane t\u00eb gazit ishin vet\u00ebm rreth 57% t\u00eb mbushura n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb gushtit.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Gas Infrastructure Europe treguan se niveli ishte 57.1% m\u00eb 1 gusht, niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb vitit n\u00eb serin\u00eb historike.<\/p>\n
Rregullat e BE-s\u00eb vijojn\u00eb t\u00eb synojn\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel rezervash prej 90%, megjith\u00ebse vendet tashm\u00eb kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb fleksibilitet p\u00ebr afatin kur duhet ta arrijn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb objektiv. Niveli mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbushet n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn nga 1 tetori deri m\u00eb 1 dhjetor, nd\u00ebrsa kushtet e v\u00ebshtira t\u00eb tregut lejojn\u00eb edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb fleksibilitet.<\/p>\n
Brukseli u ka k\u00ebrkuar gjithashtu vendeve t\u00eb shqyrtojn\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb k\u00ebtij fleksibiliteti p\u00ebr ta ulur objektivin n\u00eb 80%, kur kushtet e tregut e b\u00ebjn\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb mbushjen e rezervave.<\/p>\n
Rezervat jan\u00eb \u201cdepoja e ushqimit\u201d energjetik t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs p\u00ebr dimrin.<\/p>\n
Gazi mund t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb problem edhe p\u00ebr BQE-n\u00eb<\/p>\n
N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb, rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb gazit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje energjetike.<\/p>\n
Ajo shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb problem inflacioni dhe m\u00eb pas edhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje p\u00ebr Bank\u00ebn Qendrore Europiane (BQE).<\/p>\n
\u00c7mimet me shumic\u00eb t\u00eb gazit l\u00ebvizin m\u00eb shpejt sesa faturat e familjeve, sepse kompanit\u00eb e energjis\u00eb shpesh i sigurojn\u00eb blerjet disa muaj m\u00eb par\u00eb. Oxford Economics vler\u00ebson se ndikimi maksimal i \u00e7mimeve me shumic\u00eb te konsumatori zakonisht ndihet rreth gjasht\u00eb muaj pas rritjes fillestare.<\/p>\n
Por kjo mbrojtje dob\u00ebsohet n\u00ebse \u00e7mimet mbeten t\u00eb larta. Me skadimin e kontratave dhe rinovimin e tyre, \u00e7mimet me pakic\u00eb fillojn\u00eb gradualisht t\u2019u afrohen niveleve t\u00eb tregut me shumic\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ndikimi ndryshon ndjesh\u00ebm nga nj\u00eb vend n\u00eb tjetrin.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb Gjermani dhe Austri, kontratat me \u00e7mim fiks priren t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb afatgjata, duke e ngadal\u00ebsuar transmetimin e rritjes. N\u00eb Franc\u00eb, Itali dhe Spanj\u00eb, reagimi \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i shpejt\u00eb. N\u00eb Holand\u00eb, ndikimi te konsumator\u00ebt \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Italia \u00ebsht\u00eb ndryshe, sepse kombinon transmetimin relativisht t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve me nj\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb lart\u00eb nga gazi. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, Oxford Economics e konsideron Italin\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e madhe europiane m\u00eb t\u00eb ekspozuar ndaj nj\u00eb goditjeje t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb gazit.<\/p>\n
Kjo e b\u00ebn rritjen e gazit jo vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje t\u00eb tregjeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, por potencialisht edhe nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare.<\/p>\n
Oxford Economics vler\u00ebson se inflacioni i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm n\u00eb Eurozon\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb pran\u00eb 3.5% n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2026, bazuar n\u00eb \u00e7mimet aktuale t\u00eb gazit me shumic\u00eb, krahasuar me pak mbi 3% n\u00eb skenarin e tij baz\u00eb.<\/p>\n
BQE-ja i ka rritur tashm\u00eb normat e interesit si p\u00ebrgjigje ndaj nj\u00eb goditjeje inflacioniste t\u00eb nxitur nga energjia.<\/p>\n
Tregjet presin gjer\u00ebsisht edhe nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr rritje prej 0.25 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje n\u00eb shtator.<\/p>\n
Projeksionet e vet\u00eb BQE-s\u00eb t\u00eb publikuara n\u00eb qershor tregonin se inflacioni do t\u00eb mbetej i lart\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, duke arritur rreth 3.4% n\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb dhe t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt t\u00eb vitit 2026.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb dim\u00ebr m\u00eb i ftoht\u00eb mund t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb k\u00ebshtu nj\u00eb kombinim t\u00eb pak\u00ebndsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb europiane: r\u00ebnie t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb bler\u00ebse t\u00eb familjeve dhe norma m\u00eb t\u00eb larta interesi.\/ Euronews<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7mimet e gazit n\u00eb Europ\u00eb jan\u00eb rritur me 130% gjat\u00eb vitit 2026, nd\u00ebrsa rezervat e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46258,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bote"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=46255"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46255\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46259,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46255\/revisions\/46259"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/46258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=46255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=46255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=46255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}