{"id":55540,"date":"2026-10-07T19:54:04","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T17:54:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/?p=55540"},"modified":"2026-10-07T19:54:04","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T17:54:04","slug":"nga-republika-srpska-te-ballkani-pse-fitorja-e-dodikut-ka-rendesi-rajonale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/?p=55540","title":{"rendered":"Nga Republika Srpska te Ballkani: Pse fitorja e Dodikut ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi rajonale"},"content":{"rendered":"

Shkruan: Nefail Emini<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zgjedhjet e 4 tetorit n\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb dhe Hercegovin\u00eb prodhuan nj\u00eb rezultat me pesh\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb politike: Milorad Dodik nuk ishte n\u00eb flet\u00ebvotim, por emri dhe ndikimi i tij dominuan fushat\u00ebn dhe rezultatin zgjedhor n\u00eb Republika Srpska. SNSD-ja e tij arriti nj\u00eb fitore t\u00eb fuqishme, nd\u00ebrsa kandidat\u00ebt e mb\u00ebshtetur nga Dodik triumfuan n\u00eb garat kryesore politike. Nj\u00eb fitore e tij do t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndikime t\u00eb fuqishme, t\u00eb cilat nuk do t\u00eb kufizohen vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb dhe Hercegovin\u00eb, por n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb fitore q\u00eb shkon p\u00ebrtej rezultateve zgjedhore<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb selin\u00eb e SNSD-s\u00eb n\u00eb Banja Luka, Dodik doli personalisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb shpallur fitoren n\u00eb garat kryesore dhe, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb simbolike, d\u00ebshmoi se vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb figura qendrore e k\u00ebsaj force politike. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ndoshta pjesa m\u00eb dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse e k\u00ebtyre zgjedhjeve: Dodik u p\u00ebrjashtua nga gara institucionale, por jo nga gara p\u00ebr pushtet politik. Rezultati i SNSD-s\u00eb me 41.09 % t\u00eb votave t\u00eb fituara ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr funksionimin e institucioneve t\u00eb Republik\u00ebs Srpska. Sigurimi i nj\u00eb shumice t\u00eb fuqishme n\u00eb Asamblen\u00eb Komb\u00ebtare t\u00eb entitetit i jep kampit t\u00eb Dodikut nj\u00eb pozit\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb favorshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb kontrolluar agjend\u00ebn politike dhe institucionale.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse kjo shumic\u00eb konsolidohet n\u00eb nivelin e parashikuar, SNSD-ja dhe partner\u00ebt e saj do t\u00eb ken\u00eb kapacitet t\u00eb konsideruesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb miratuar vendime t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme pa qen\u00eb t\u00eb varur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdueshme nga opozita. Kjo e forcon ndjesh\u00ebm pozit\u00ebn e Dodikut, edhe pse ai nuk mban m\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin funksion institucional.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb politik\u00ebn e komplikuar kushtetuese t\u00eb Bosnj\u00ebs dhe Hercegovin\u00ebs, kontrolli mbi institucionet e Republik\u00ebs Srpska ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe sesa nj\u00eb shumic\u00eb e zakonshme parlamentare. Struktura kushtetuese e shtetit u jep entiteteve dhe p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesve t\u00eb tyre mekanizma t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm p\u00ebr mbrojtjen e interesave t\u00eb tyre politike dhe institucionale, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt Dodik i ka shfryt\u00ebzuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb bllokuar apo v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsuar funksionimin normal t\u00eb Bosnj\u00ebs dhe Hercegovin\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, nj\u00eb shumic\u00eb e fuqishme e kampit t\u00eb Dodikut n\u00eb Banja Luka nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm \u00e7\u00ebshtje e politik\u00ebs s\u00eb brendshme t\u00eb Republik\u00ebs Srpska. Ajo ka potencial t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt edhe n\u00eb funksionimin e institucioneve qendrore t\u00eb Bosnj\u00ebs dhe Hercegovin\u00ebs dhe n\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor.<\/p>\n

Dodik jasht\u00eb institucionit, por brenda qendr\u00ebs s\u00eb pushtetit<\/strong><\/p>\n

Paradoksi m\u00eb i madh i k\u00ebtyre zgjedhjeve \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht ky: Dodik humbi nj\u00eb funksion institucional, por nuk humbi pushtetin politik. N\u00eb fakt, rezultati mund ta ket\u00eb forcuar edhe m\u00eb tej pozit\u00ebn e tij brenda SNSD-s\u00eb dhe n\u00eb struktur\u00ebn politike t\u00eb Republik\u00ebs Srpska. Ai tashm\u00eb mund t\u00eb veproj\u00eb nga nj\u00eb pozit\u00eb m\u00eb pak formale, por potencialisht po aq efektive.<\/p>\n

Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja pse termi \u201cudh\u00ebheq\u00ebs nga hija\u201d mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshkrim i p\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr faz\u00ebn e re politike t\u00eb Dodikut. Ai nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht institucioni, por mbetet njeriu q\u00eb p\u00ebrcakton drejtimin politik t\u00eb institucionit.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb sistem politik ku partit\u00eb, koalicionet dhe mekanizmat institucional\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhur ngusht\u00eb me lider\u00ebt politik\u00eb, kontrolli mbi partin\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb po aq i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm sa mbajtja e nj\u00eb posti zyrtar. Dhe rezultati i zgjedhjeve tregon se SNSD-ja vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb instrumenti kryesor p\u00ebrmes t\u00eb cilit Dodik ushtron ndikimin e tij politik.<\/p>\n

Pasojat p\u00ebr Bosnj\u00ebn dhe Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fitorja politike e Milorad Dodikut dhe konsolidimi i m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm i forcave t\u00eb tij n\u00eb Republika Srpska mund t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb pasoja t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr funksionimin e brendsh\u00ebm t\u00eb Bosnj\u00ebs dhe Hercegovin\u00ebs, por edhe p\u00ebr ekuilibrat gjeopolitik\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor. N\u00eb planin e brendsh\u00ebm, forcimi i Dodikut rrezikon t\u00eb thelloj\u00eb paraliz\u00ebn institucionale dhe p\u00ebrplasjet nd\u00ebrmjet nivelit qendror dhe entitetit serb, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb funksionimin e institucioneve shtet\u00ebrore. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb nj\u00eb shk\u00ebputjeje t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme, skenari m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb proces gradual i dob\u00ebsimit t\u00eb autoritetit qendror dhe zgjerimit t\u00eb autonomis\u00eb de facto t\u00eb Republika Srpska-s.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht, forcimi i retorik\u00ebs nacionaliste mund t\u00eb rris\u00eb tensionet nd\u00ebrmjet komuniteteve boshnjake, serbe dhe kroate, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb brisht\u00eb ekuilibrin e brendsh\u00ebm t\u00eb vendit. \u00c7do p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim i konfliktit politik mund t\u00eb prodhoj\u00eb nj\u00eb cik\u00ebl t\u00eb ri nacionalizmi reciprok, duke e larguar Bosnj\u00ebn nga nd\u00ebrtimi i nj\u00eb sistemi institucional m\u00eb funksional dhe duke e kthyer at\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb shtet me stabilitet t\u00eb ngrir\u00eb, por me tensione t\u00eb vazhdueshme.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb planin rajonal, forcimi i Dodikut mund t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet nd\u00ebrmjet Banja Luk\u00ebs dhe Beogradit. Nj\u00eb afrim m\u00eb i madh politik nd\u00ebrmjet Republika Srpska-s dhe Serbis\u00eb do ta shnd\u00ebrronte \u00e7\u00ebshtjen e brendshme boshnjake n\u00eb nj\u00eb problem me dimension t\u00eb qart\u00eb rajonal. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, lidhjet e Dodikut me Mosk\u00ebn e b\u00ebjn\u00eb Bosnj\u00ebn nj\u00eb prej pikave ku mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrplasen interesat ruse dhe euroatlantike. Rusia mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga dob\u00ebsimi institucional i Bosnj\u00ebs dhe nga pengimi i orientimit t\u00eb saj drejt strukturave euroatlantike, pa qen\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht e nevojshme nj\u00eb shk\u00ebputje formale e Republika Srpska-s.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Bashkimin Evropian dhe NATO-n, nj\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb m\u00eb e fragmentuar institucionalisht do t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb p\u00ebr stabilitetin e krahut juglindor t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs. N\u00ebse procesi i integrimit evropian ngec p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb bllokadave politike dhe munges\u00ebs s\u00eb reformave, krijohet nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe p\u00ebr ndikimin e aktor\u00ebve t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, \u00e7do p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim i \u00e7\u00ebshtjes s\u00eb Republika Srpska-s mund t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb pasoja p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn, Serbin\u00eb dhe vendet e tjera t\u00eb Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor, duke rihapur debatet mbi autonomin\u00eb, kufijt\u00eb dhe t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn p\u00ebr vet\u00ebvendosje.<\/p>\n

Prandaj, pasoja m\u00eb e madhe e fitores s\u00eb Dodikut nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht nj\u00eb konflikt i ri i armatosur, por normalizimi gradual i nj\u00eb modeli politik ku shteti mbetet formalisht i bashkuar, nd\u00ebrsa funksionalisht dob\u00ebsohet nga brenda. N\u00ebse ky proces vazhdon, Bosnja dhe Hercegovina rrezikon t\u00eb mbetet nj\u00eb pik\u00eb e p\u00ebrhershme e pasiguris\u00eb politike dhe gjeopolitike n\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor, ku p\u00ebrplasja nd\u00ebrmjet nacionalizmit, integrimit evropian dhe interesave t\u00eb fuqive t\u00eb jashtme do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen e rajonit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shkruan: Nefail Emini Zgjedhjet e 4 tetorit n\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb dhe Hercegovin\u00eb prodhuan nj\u00eb rezultat me…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":55543,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-op-ed","category-rajon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55540"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55544,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55540\/revisions\/55544"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/55543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}