P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb protestave n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb vendin, Franca do t\u00eb alokoj\u00eb kat\u00ebr miliard\u00eb euro shtes\u00eb p\u00ebr arsimin. Mir\u00ebpo, ky vend i zhytur thell\u00eb n\u00eb borxhe nuk ka pothuajse asnj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb manovrimi financiar.<\/p>\n
E zhytur r\u00ebnd\u00eb n\u00eb borxhe, e bllokuar politikisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb ng\u00ebr\u00e7 midis ekstremeve, e drejtuar nga nj\u00eb qeveri pa shumic\u00eb n\u00eb Parlament: k\u00ebto jan\u00eb fjal\u00ebt ky\u00e7e q\u00eb p\u00ebrmbledhin situat\u00ebn e Franc\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur, si reagim ndaj protestave komb\u00ebtare, qeveria e pakic\u00ebs planifikon t\u00eb alokoj\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2030 kat\u00ebr miliard\u00eb euro hua me terma leht\u00ebsues p\u00ebr rinovimin e shkollave dhe t\u2019u jap\u00eb nj\u00eb miliard euro universiteteve deri n\u00eb vitin 2029, b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr para q\u00eb shteti n\u00eb realitet nuk i ka. Borxhi francez kap shifr\u00ebn e rreth 120 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb Prodhimit t\u00eb Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto (PBB).<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr krahasim: pavar\u00ebsisht planit prej 600 miliard\u00eb eurosh dedikuar infrastruktur\u00ebs dhe mbrojtjes, niveli i borxhit t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb rreth 65 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n
Si emetuese, Gjermania ruan vler\u00ebsimin maksimal AAA. Franca, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, vler\u00ebsohet me AA, A+ ose Aa3 n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb agjencive t\u00eb vler\u00ebsimit. Nd\u00ebrsa perspektivat e Gjermanis\u00eb konsiderohen p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme, disa agjenci i vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb ato t\u00eb Franc\u00ebs si negative.<\/p>\n
Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja pse qeveria e Parisit duhet t\u00eb paguaj\u00eb norma interesi m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se ajo e Berlinit. Kjo prim\u00eb rreziku, e quajtur \u201cspread\u201d, n\u00eb krahasim me obligacionet shtet\u00ebrore gjermane, nuk ka qen\u00eb kurr\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb q\u00eb nga kriza financiare. P\u00ebr obligacionet dhjet\u00ebvje\u00e7are, Franca paguan pothuajse 1,6 p\u00ebr qind interes m\u00eb shum\u00eb se Gjermania.<\/p>\n
Termometri i financave franceze<\/p>\n
Spread-i funksionon si nj\u00eb termomet\u00ebr i tregjeve t\u00eb obligacioneve, shpjegon Friedrich Heinemann, ekonomist n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn Leibniz p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime Ekonomike Evropiane (ZEW) n\u00eb Mannheim. \u00abKy termomet\u00ebr at\u00ebher\u00eb detyron t\u00eb b\u00ebsh nj\u00eb kthes\u00eb prapa. Kur spread-i rritet shum\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm, kushtet e financimit francez gjenden gjithashtu n\u00ebn presion dhe t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ata q\u00eb kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb kredi n\u00eb Franc\u00eb duhet t\u00eb paguajn\u00eb norma interesi m\u00eb t\u00eb larta. Bankat at\u00ebher\u00eb gjenden n\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi dhe kriza nuk resht s\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuari\u00bb, shpjegon Heinemann n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebr DW.<\/p>\n
\u00abKjo mund t\u00eb \u00e7onte at\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb financiare, e cila do t\u2019u b\u00ebnte t\u00eb qart\u00eb edhem\u00eb skeptik\u00ebve: nuk mund t\u00eb vazhdohet k\u00ebshtu, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 n\u00ebse d\u00ebshirohet t\u00eb pranohet nj\u00eb kolaps i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ekonomik.\u00bb<\/p>\n
Landry Charrier nuk beson n\u00eb nj\u00eb fund t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb \u201cfest\u00ebs s\u00eb borxhit\u201d francez. \u00abFrancez\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00ebdijsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr nivelin e lart\u00eb t\u00eb borxhit publik. Por borxhi mbetet abstrakt p\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb pasojat e tij v\u00ebshtir\u00eb se ndihen n\u00eb jet\u00ebn e p\u00ebrditshme. Sipas INSEE (Instituti Komb\u00ebtar i Statistikave dhe Studimeve Ekonomike, sh\u00ebn. i red.), 56 p\u00ebr qind e popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebrfiton m\u00eb shum\u00eb sh\u00ebrbime dhe p\u00ebrfitime publike sesa paguan taksa dhe kontribute. Shumica ka pra \u00e7do interes q\u00eb status quo-ja t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb\u00bb, shpjegon Charrier, hulumtues n\u00eb Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies t\u00eb Universitetit t\u00eb Bonit, n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebr DW.<\/p>\n
Prej mbi gjysm\u00eb shekulli, Franca shpenzon m\u00eb shum\u00eb se mbledh taksa<\/p>\n
Prej m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysm\u00eb shekulli, Franca shpenzon rregullisht m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa mbledh n\u00eb form\u00eb taksash. Buxheti i fundit i balancuar daton n\u00eb vitin 1974.<\/p>\n
Franca pagoi p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb fundit nj\u00eb prim\u00eb rreziku kaq t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2011, gjat\u00eb kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb borxhit t\u00eb zon\u00ebs euro. Ajo q\u00eb bie n\u00eb sy n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shpejt\u00ebsia e rritjes: q\u00eb nga qershori 2026, diferenca krahasuar me obligacionet gjermane \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se dyfishuar.<\/p>\n
Kjo shpjegohet m\u00eb pak nga niveli i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i normave t\u00eb interesit sesa nga rritja e prim\u00ebs s\u00eb rrezikut t\u00eb lidhur me borxhin e lart\u00eb, instabilitetin politik, deficitet e m\u00ebdha buxhetore dhe trazirat e fundit.<\/p>\n
Sa m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb jen\u00eb normat e interesit, aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb rritet pjesa e buxhetit t\u00eb shtetit q\u00eb i dedikohet vet\u00ebm sh\u00ebrbimit t\u00eb borxhit. N\u00eb vitin 2026, Franca pritet t\u00eb paguaj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 79 miliard\u00eb euro interes p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb borxhin e saj publik. P\u00ebr vitin 2027, priten m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 91 miliard\u00eb euro, dhe deri n\u00eb vitin 2030, kjo shif\u00ebr mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 125 deri n\u00eb 132 miliard\u00eb euro.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto shifra p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb kostot q\u00eb lidhen me sigurimet shoq\u00ebrore dhe autoritetet vendore. Agjencia France Tr\u00e9sor vler\u00ebson aktualisht ngarkes\u00ebn e interesit t\u00eb pushtit qendror n\u00eb 62,6 miliard\u00eb euro.<\/p>\n
Franca do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb rifinancoj\u00eb, n\u00eb vitet e ardhshme, shum\u00eb obligacione t\u00eb vjetra t\u00eb emetuara me norma interesi historikisht t\u00eb ul\u00ebta. Paralelisht, deficiti i lart\u00eb buxhetor k\u00ebrkon nj\u00eb borxh shtes\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse rendimentet mbahen n\u00eb nivelin e tyre aktual, ngarkesat e interesit mund t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb deri n\u00eb 130 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vitin 2030. Ky parashikim pak m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt, prej 125,8 miliard\u00eb eurosh, mb\u00ebshtetet te projektbuxheti i Kryeministrit S\u00e9bastien Lecornu p\u00ebr vitin 2027. Ky i fundit parashikon 54 miliard\u00eb euro kursime p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur deficitin nga 5,4 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb 5,0 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb, por p\u00ebr momentin nuk siguron shumic\u00ebn n\u00eb Parlament.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb sinjal paralajm\u00ebrues p\u00ebr Gjermanin\u00eb<\/p>\n
Tendenca rrit\u00ebse e ngarkesave t\u00eb interesit prek gjithashtu Gjermanin\u00eb. Friedrich Heinemann ka llogaritur se shpenzimet e interesit t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb pritet t\u00eb rriten ndjesh\u00ebm deri n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 2030. \u00abVet\u00ebm p\u00ebr shtetin federal, i cili ka paguar deri tani rreth 30 miliard\u00eb euro, kjo shum\u00eb do t\u00eb trefishohet brenda pak vitesh, pasi borxhi dhe interesat rriten.\u201d<\/p>\n
N\u00eb Franc\u00eb, megjithat\u00eb, realitetet ekonomike duket se kan\u00eb pak ndikim politik. Si Rassemblement National (RN) n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00eb, ashtu edhe La France insoumise (LFI) n\u00eb t\u00eb majt\u00eb, b\u00ebjn\u00eb fushat\u00eb me premtime t\u00eb kushtueshme.<\/p>\n
Marine Le Pen, p\u00ebr shembull, d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb kthehet te mosha e daljes n\u00eb pension prej 62 vje\u00e7, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb premton kursime prej 140 miliard\u00eb eurosh. Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon propozon madje t\u00eb \u00abhidhen n\u00eb zjarr\u00bb obligacionet shtet\u00ebrore t\u00eb mbajtura nga Banka e Franc\u00ebs. Themeluesi i LFI-s\u00eb deklaron: \u00abAskush nuk do ta v\u00ebrej\u00eb kurr\u00eb se ato jan\u00eb zhdukur.\u00bb<\/p>\n
\u00abP\u00ebrralla nga e majta dhe e djathta\u00bb<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr Friedrich Heinemann, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00abnj\u00eb shembull i mir\u00eb q\u00eb tregon se ekzistojn\u00eb, si n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00eb ashtu edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb majt\u00eb t\u00eb sken\u00ebs politike, parti radikale q\u00eb nuk b\u00ebjn\u00eb gj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ve\u00e7se tregojn\u00eb p\u00ebrralla ekonomike\u00bb. Em\u00ebruesi i p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt do t\u00eb ishte \u00abse ekziston nj\u00eb rrug\u00ebdalje nga mjerimi q\u00eb nuk kalon as p\u00ebrmes konsolidimit buxhetor e as p\u00ebrmes shkurtimeve buxhetore\u00bb.<\/p>\n
Landry Charrier \u00ebsht\u00eb i bindur se shum\u00eb francez\u00eb ende nuk e kan\u00eb matur seriozitetin e situat\u00ebs: \u00abEuroja ia ka leht\u00ebsuar Franc\u00ebs qasjen n\u00eb financim t\u00eb lir\u00eb dhe e ka zbutur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb presionin e p\u00ebrshtatjes\u00bb, thekson ky ekspert p\u00ebr Franc\u00ebn. \u00abDikur, zhvler\u00ebsimet [e frang\u00ebs franceze, sh\u00ebn. i red.] i b\u00ebnin disbalancat ekonomike menj\u00ebher\u00eb t\u00eb dukshme, p\u00ebrmes humbjeve t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb bler\u00ebse dhe rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve. Sot, ky sinjal alarmi mungon. K\u00ebshtu lindi iluzioni se korrigjimet e nevojshme mund t\u00eb shtyhen pafund\u00ebsisht.\u00bb \/DW<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb protestave n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb vendin, Franca do t\u00eb alokoj\u00eb kat\u00ebr miliard\u00eb euro…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":62006,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bote"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62007,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62003\/revisions\/62007"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/62006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faktiditor.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}